North Korea set to return to brinkmanship

2024-05-20 20:22:33      点击：331

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presides over a meeting of the Central Committee of the ruling Workers' Party in Pyongyang, Wednesday, in this photo provided by the North's Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap

Pyongyang hints at resuming nuclear, ICBM tests

By Kang Seung-woo

North Korea is dusting off the old playbook of provocations to capture the attention of the U.S. and gain the upper hand in future talks by hinting at lifting a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests, according to diplomatic observers.

Pyongyang's state-run Korean Central News Agency (KNCA) reported, Thursday, that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un decided to reconsider resuming "all temporarily-suspended activities" at a political bureau meeting held the previous day.

"We should make more thorough preparations for a long-term confrontation with the U.S. imperialists," it said, criticizing the U.S.' hostile policy of reaching a dangerous level.

The North Korean leader declared a halt to all nuclear and ICBM tests in April 2018, while engaging in talks with former U.S. President Donald Trump. However, the nuclear talks between the U.S. and North Korea have been stalled since a bilateral summit held in Hanoi, Vietnam in February 2019 ended without a deal. Instead, the regime has been committed to testing short-range missiles that Washington has played down.

"Kim voluntarily placed the moratorium as an enticement to spur progress in negotiations with the U.S. When it became clear that he would not get his way in the negotiations, Kim had alluded to the possibility of lifting the moratorium," said Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst now with the Rand Corporation.

"So it was a matter of when ― not if ― that the DPRK would lift its nuclear and missile moratorium," she said.

The DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea's official name.

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Harry Kazianis, senior director of Korean Studies at the Center for the National Interest, also said the North Korean leader realized that Washington did not care about his country as long as it does not pose a threat to the U.S. mainland by deploying "nuclear missiles mounted on ICBMs."

"Unless he begins testing them again, North Korea will never rise to the status of something that Joe Biden will use political capital to tackle," Kazianis said.

"I do think at this point the North Koreans just threatened to test ICBMs and nuclear weapons if they do not see any progress in their goals ― getting Joe Biden's attention and the possibility of sanctions relief," he said.

However, Soo Kim said the North Korean leader may not resume tests right away.

"By hinting at the possibility of testing again, he may be looking to elicit a reaction from the U.S. This also helps Kim buy additional time before taking the next steps," she added.

Already preoccupied with a difficult domestic situation as well as other diplomatic issues, North Korea has been put on the back burner within the Biden administration, which has responded to Pyongyang's recent series of missile launches with only verbal warnings and expressions of disappointment.

Kazianis expected that the Biden administration will not respond to the specific threat beyond the "normal tough-sounding statements."

"However, if Kim does test an ICBM or nuclear weapon, that would violate Washington's unofficial red line that such tests mean more pressure on the DPRK," he said.

Soo Kim also advised the U.S. to response more unequivocally this time to deter North Korea.

"Should the U.S. maintain this position, it may only encourage North Korea to continue its practices. However, the administration may be concerned about overshooting ― and thus eliciting a North Korean response that's even more confrontational," she said.

"Kim may have already assessed such deliberations and may be aiming to push the U.S. into a corner of decision-making that's favorable to North Korean interests. Essentially, Kim wants to see the U.S. blink first," she added.

In response to North Korea's threat, the South Korean government said it was closely monitoring the North's latest moves with a sense of tension, stressing dialogue and diplomacy are the only solution to building peace on the Korean Peninsula.